Spreading the Truth About Point Spreads
Gamblers enjoy their favorites. Oddsmakers put a point spread onto a game, and also the natural tendency of many longtime bettors would be to think this signifies just how much a group is”favorite” over the next to win the match.
Needless to say, it often has little to do with that, because oddsmakers put the spreads based on public perception with the sole objective of getting 50 percent of bettors to wager on every team, therefore”the house” comes out ahead no matter whether the favorite or the underdog triumphs.
A prime example is that the 2003 Super Bowl, on which oddsmakers all around the country made the aging yet offensive-oriented Oakland Raiders 4.5-point favorites over the youthful, defense-minded Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Avid followers of soccer saw great value in this distribute, knowing that defense most often wins big competitions. But fans adore offense, not defense, and fans who gamble love favorites.
So, many bettors stuck their heads from the sand and plunked down their money on the Raiders. Some sportsbooks reported stakes on Oakland -4.5 outweighing those on Tampa Bay +4.5 with an astonishing 9-1 ratio. In the end, the Buccaneers blasted the Raiders, and many books made out like bandits, because too few gamblers put enough stock in the worth of underdogs.
In +4.5, Tampa Bay virtually settled the event before halftime, mounting a 17-point guide, since the only time that a Super Bowl team has rallied from a 10-point deficit to triumph was 1988, when Washington scored the final six touchdowns in a 42-10 trouncing of Denver.
Of course, sports fans and gamblers may be forgiven when they have a deeply ingrained misconception of what point spreads represent. Bear in mind, the media — especially TV and radio broadcasters — have to tap-dance around the dilemma of gambling, since it is illegal in 99% of the U.S.. Actually, if broadcasters cite the point spread at all, it may be in death, for example,”The Vikings are favored by a touchdown within the Packers.”
The big hypocrisy is that point spreads, particularly on soccer and basketball, can be found in virtually every newspaper in the nation, even those hundreds of miles from the closest legal casino or sportsbook.
Shopping For Baseball Bargains
When I was extolling the merits of gambling on baseball (and hockey) in the previous chapter, I intentionally failed to mention that much of the value on gambling moneylines comes in the financial upside of going with underdogs. I waited to get into this until now, understanding that this chapter is devoted entirely to the topic.
I never fully understood the power of underdogs till I met Andrew at Vegas. He’s a professional gambler but”works” only 6 months per year, during baseball season. Andrew resides — lives well — on the money he makes throughout the entire year, averaging roughly $20,000 profit per month.
Remarkably enough, he doesn’t work that hard on earning money during baseball season. All told, it requires Andrew approximately 15 minutes each morning to make his picks for the afternoon, he then goes and plays a round of golf and also can be home with the wife and children by mid-afternoon.
After I saw that the sort of money he was making and how effortless he appeared to do this, I told Andrew I had to understand his method. At first he was reluctant, like a grandma with her key, prize-winning peach pie recipe. However, like many people with a great secret, he finally spilled the beans.
It turns out, he bets only on baseball and that he bets just on underdogs. And, as I said, it takes him less time to determine who he’s betting each day than it does for him to get in the first tee into the second hole on the golf program. Less time, in fact, since he is not much of a golfer.
Now I will teach you that his secret, which I’ve modified slightly to optimize gains. I call it, fittingly, The Baseball Underdog System.
All my 12 Money-Management Programs are composed of a succession of bets that are either predetermined by me or could be quickly calculated by you with a Formula I will supply you.
For the purposes of the cases in this chapter, all bets are at varying moneyline odds, which will be clarified with each scenario.
The Baseball Underdog System is based on a law of averages showing that, over the long term, MLB underdogs overcome favorites about 4 games out of 9 (or 44 percent of their time). In spite of moneyline odds on underdogs earning you better than even money — meaning that at +130 you lay $10 to win $13 — you need to stand up better than a record of 4 wins and 5 losses every day to produce substantial profits.
By way of example, let’s assume you bet $10 on each of 9 underdogs now, with each getting +130 moneyline odds. If you win 4 games, you gain $13 per 52 total. However, the $50 you lose when 5 favorites triumph provides you with a slender $2 profit overall. So Rather than just betting on the underdogs in every match, you must weed out about two-thirds of those matches by after my 3 easy criteria:
Read more: nfl sports betting